Table 2 Performance characteristics of recommended risk prediction models for diabetic foot ulcer development or amputation
From: Risk prediction models for diabetic foot ulcer development or amputation: a review of reviews
Prediction model; derivation cohort characteristics, size | Validation | Validation cohort size (n); characteristics | Outcome predicted | Prediction horizon | Discrimination; C-statistic or AUC (95% CI) | Overall Calibration Slopea (Observed/Predicted) (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boyko et al. (2006) [15]; 95% type 2 diabetes, n = 1285 | Internal (development cohort) | 1285; Veterans in the U.S., 95% with type 2 diabetes seen in primary care clinics, 98% male | DFU | 1 year | 0.81 (NRb) | NR |
DFU | 5 years | 0.76 (NR) | NR | |||
External | 7624; Patients in Netherlands with type 2 diabetes seen in primary care clinics; 53% male | DFU | 5 years | 0.81 (0.75, 0.86) | NR | |
Martins-Mendes et al., originalc (2014) [17]; 98% type 2 diabetes, n = 644 | Internal (development cohort) | 644; Patients in Portugal, 98% with type 2 diabetes seen in diabetes foot clinics, 47% male | DFU | 3 years | 0.8 (0.76, 0.84) | NR |
Amputation | 3 years | 0.83 (0.78, 0.89) | NR | |||
External | 7624; Patients in Netherlands with type 2 diabetes seen in primary care clinics; 53% male | DFU3 | 5 years | 0.78 (0.73, 0.82) | 1.56 (NR) | |
Amputation | 5 years | 0.81 (0.74, 0.88) | 1.26 (NR) | |||
Martins-Mendes et al., simplified (2014) [17]; 98% type 2 diabetes, n = 644 | Internal (development cohort) | 644; Patients in Portugal, 98% with type 2 diabetes seen in diabetes foot outpatient clinic, 47% male | DFU | 3 years | 0.79 (0.76, 0.83) | NR |
Amputation | 3 years | 0.81 (0.74, 0.87) | NR | |||
External | 7624; Patients in Netherlands; 100% type 2 diabetes seen in primary care clinics; 53% male | DFU | 5 years | 0.77 (0.72, 0.82) | 0.97 (NR) | |
Amputation | 5 years | 0.78 (0.71, 0.84) | 1.41(NR) | |||
PODUS (2020); type 1 and 2 diabetes, n = 8255 | Internal (development cohort) | 8255; Patients from 4 cohorts in Europe and U.S. with type 1 or 2 diabetes seen in primary and secondary foot clinics; 53% male | DFU | 2 years | NR | NR |
External | 3324; Patients in U.K. with type 1 or 2 diabetes; 91% type 2 diabetes seen in primary and secondary foot clinics; 57% male | DFU | 2 years | 0.83 (0.79–0.87) | 1.14 (0.99–1.28) |